For many and varied reasons it’s been a while since I’ve added to this blog - not the least of which being the ability of TPTB to forestall what I consider to be the inevitable breaching of the Zero (yield) line at the short end of the curve (< 3mo T’s)
We “watchers” have however borne witness to a generalised market abandonment of the Long- End-of-the-Curve, which is consistent with my prognostications …ie: (hypothetically currently) being a direct result of going through …and beyond the Zero (Yield). This abandonment however (so they say) has also largely been absorbed by “official” activities.
The sum-total of these events presents a bit of a quandary …looking forward!
General commentary would have us believe that we are but a hairs breadth away from $US demise as the World Reserve Currency and, as a direct result thereof, Hyper-Inflation is and will be a no-brainer sooner rather than later…
…and that may well be the case, although I’m inclined toward disagreeing with that particular hypothesis.
Let’s then take a peek into the future and try to see what may transpire.
The first point of clarity I would like to highlight is to draw attention (again) to the Fed IR increase back in ’05, or thereabouts? Mr Market shortly thereafter convincingly and unceremoniously turned its back on the IR -hike by further driving down Yields and declaring once and for all that IT …and NOT the Fed were in charge of proceedings going forward. The Fed promptly dropped their official rates in deferment.
…so, to my way of thinking, the Market, which is hell-bent on breaching this Zero-line on the short end of the Yield curve, is again being thwarted by “official” activity which ultimately will be over-come.
In the grand scheme of things, the Fed (et-al) activities is now and always will be subservient to the Market IMHO…which is basically a sub-component of what some refer to as the Super-Organism - …and the Market of which is in turn subservient to it.
A portion of this S-O obviously reacts to the various machinations of the aforementioned Market, Fed et-al …but essentially (I feel) the S-O will do whatever the S-O is destined to do based on developments external to the activities of these its servants –( Market, Fed etc. )
Trying to predict how the S-O will evolve is nigh on impossible but rest assured, it WILL have its way eventually!
…so this current goosing of the natural evolution process doesn’t bode very well going forward IMHO.
With all realignments, the transitional “end-result” can be quite a shocking experience.
We’re currently, almost on a daily basis being confronted with signals from the S-O whispering (and occasionally yelling) a tune that portends a Future not similar to, or even consistent with the Past …and so it may be a worthwhile exercise to try and disseminate a few thoughts on what I think may be relative to this imminent transition – and particularly as it pertains to crossing and / or embracing the Zero point…
…and with particular reference to GOLD!
Let’s, disregard the Monetary / Fiscal perspective as discussed above and previously for the moment …and venture into the realm of the neutral or “sublime” point - a topic which is essentially avoided like the plague by all those intent on creating a “point-of-difference” in this-here World as we know it.
To Zero …and beyond! ……….(as Buzz might say)
We have since Adam and Eve been conditioned to accept the ”notion of difference” being the essence of our existence here on Earth eg: Man – Woman, Heaven – Hell, Life – Death, Good – Bad, Black – White, Positive – Negative, Democrats – Republicans …ad-infinitum …always and everywhere a point-of-difference, however it appears to me that these “opposites” are rarely if ever “really” that …and by seeking out and attaining a neutral perspective (“seizing the micro-moment” as it were) betwixt these various supposed opposites, an opportunity for Sublime Revelation may well presents itself. These opportunities should be (a) identified and (b) embraced …with gusto.
To digress a little -
I can recall one such occasion which, when looking back upon it, still gives me shivers up and down my spine –
- 6 or 8 years ago my daughter and I travelled to the centre of Australia to witness a 23 second “total solar -eclipse” (a 5 day round-trip)
The “totality” was awe-inspiring …however, given a combination of wind-blown haze and the Sun being very low on the Horizon, we were able to look directly at it …and the Moon - from about 7/8th cover onward.
There was a moment (probably about 10secs) when I was able to witness a “triangulation” ie: Me on Earth – the Sun—the Moon, with both of these celestial orbs clearly discernible “in the round” …and which absolutely and unequivocally identified MY place in the big scheme of things …right then and there.
I experienced a complete trans-fixation. For a brief time ALL thought simply evaporated …a humbling and revealing experience - let me tell you!
Now …if I’m not mistaken, just such a revelation awaits the S-O as and when $IRX embraces the Zero point and drives into negativity effectively neutering TIME in the monetary context…
…upon which the S-O will undergo an “Ar-Ha! moment” and all hell will break loose.