Sunday, December 23, 2012

To Zero ...and beyond!

For many and varied reasons it’s been a while since I’ve added to this blog - not the least of which  being the ability of TPTB to forestall what I consider to be the inevitable breaching of the Zero (yield) line at the short end of the curve (< 3mo T’s)

We “watchers” have however borne witness to a generalised  market abandonment of the Long- End-of-the-Curve,  which is consistent with my prognostications …ie: (hypothetically currently) being  a direct result of going through …and beyond the Zero (Yield). This abandonment however (so they say)  has also largely been absorbed by “official” activities.

The sum-total of these events presents a bit of a quandary …looking forward!

General commentary would have us believe that we are but a hairs breadth away from $US demise as the World Reserve Currency and, as a direct result thereof, Hyper-Inflation is and will be a no-brainer sooner rather than later…

 …and that may well be the case, although I’m inclined toward disagreeing with that particular hypothesis.

Let’s then take a peek into the future and try to see what may transpire.

The first point of clarity I would like to highlight is to draw attention (again)  to the Fed IR increase back in ’05, or thereabouts?  Mr Market shortly thereafter convincingly and unceremoniously turned its back on the IR -hike by further driving down Yields and declaring once and for all that IT …and NOT the Fed were in charge of proceedings going forward. The Fed promptly dropped their official rates in deferment.

…so, to my way of thinking, the Market, which is hell-bent on breaching this Zero-line on the short end of the Yield curve,  is again being thwarted by “official” activity which ultimately will be over-come.

In the grand scheme of things, the Fed (et-al) activities is now and always will be subservient to the Market IMHO…which is basically a sub-component of what some refer to as the Super-Organism - …and the Market of which is in turn subservient to it.

A portion of this S-O obviously reacts to the various machinations of the aforementioned Market,  Fed et-al …but essentially (I feel) the S-O will do whatever the S-O is destined to do based on developments external to the activities of these its servants –( Market, Fed etc. )

Trying to predict how the S-O will evolve is nigh on impossible but rest assured, it WILL have its way eventually!

…so this current goosing of the natural evolution process doesn’t bode very well going forward IMHO.

With all realignments, the transitional “end-result” can be quite a shocking experience.

We’re currently, almost on a daily basis being confronted with signals from the S-O whispering (and occasionally yelling) a tune that portends a Future not similar to, or even consistent with the Past …and so it may be a worthwhile exercise to try and disseminate a few thoughts on what I think may be relative to this imminent transition – and particularly as it pertains to crossing and / or embracing  the Zero point…

 …and with particular reference to GOLD!

Let’s,  disregard the Monetary / Fiscal perspective as discussed above and previously for the moment …and venture into the realm of the neutral or “sublime” point - a topic which is essentially avoided like the plague by all those intent on creating a “point-of-difference” in this-here World as we know it.

To Zero …and beyond! ……….(as Buzz might say)


We have since Adam and Eve been conditioned to accept the ”notion of difference” being the essence of our existence here on Earth eg:  Man – Woman, Heaven – Hell, Life – Death,  Good – Bad, Black – White,  Positive – Negative,  Democrats – Republicans  …ad-infinitum …always and everywhere a  point-of-difference, however it appears to me that these “opposites” are rarely if ever “really” that …and  by seeking out and attaining a neutral perspective (“seizing  the micro-moment” as it were)  betwixt these various supposed opposites, an opportunity for Sublime Revelation may well  presents itself. These opportunities should be (a) identified and (b) embraced …with gusto.

To digress a little -

I can recall one such occasion which, when looking back upon it, still gives me shivers up and down my spine  

- 6 or 8 years ago my daughter and I travelled to the centre of Australia to witness a 23 second “total solar -eclipse” (a 5 day round-trip)

The “totality” was awe-inspiring …however, given a combination of wind-blown haze and  the Sun being very low on the Horizon, we were able to look directly at it …and the Moon - from about 7/8th cover onward.

There was a moment (probably about 10secs) when I was able to witness a “triangulation” ie: Me on Earth – the Sun—the Moon, with both of these celestial orbs clearly discernible “in the round”   …and which absolutely and unequivocally identified MY place in the big scheme of things …right then and there.

I experienced a complete trans-fixation. For a brief time ALL thought simply evaporated  …a humbling and revealing experience -  let me tell you!  

Now …if I’m not mistaken, just such a revelation awaits the S-O as and when $IRX embraces the Zero point and drives into negativity  effectively neutering TIME in the monetary context…

…upon which the S-O will undergo an  “Ar-Ha! moment” and all hell will break loose.


Lets Watch!

Saturday, December 22, 2012

The year that was ...and GOLD!

What pretty-well represents 2012 from a Systemic PoV is the following Ratio Chart:-$TYX:$IRX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37314807828

...which is indicating the relatively benign, albeit "heavily managed" Ratio between Long and Short Maturities Yield IMO viewed on a Weekly basis.
We have, over the run-up to Xmas witnessed a flurry of "interest" into the short-end however one gets the impression this is more related to the closing of trades and short-term money management over the Xmas trading period than any increasing thrust into the Here-and-Now of a Systemic rout. Time will tell however.

I'm still anticipating the short-end to "eventually" go into (firstly) Parity and (ultimately) Negativity as a "natural" outcome however TPTB (it would seem) is intent on following an "unnatural" approach for as long as is possible. There aren't many "tools" available to them to deflect a wholesale flight into the H'nN and if (when) a Left-field Event rears it's ugly head, look out below!

I recently outlined (on FoFoA's Blog) what IMHO is my take on Gold ...or more precisely MY GOLD! and I thought it worthwhile fleshing the thought-process out here.

In a recent post (there) FoFoA asked "What IS Gold" and the regular (and some "irregular") posters posited their thoughts ...coming mostly down to the conclusion - Gold is Wealth.
I "think" of Gold as Wealth also ...however, the KEY to a better understanding of what Gold IS needs a bit more definition I feel.

Gold is Gold because of its unique Suite of Properties ...which both Physically and Financially set it apart from all other "pretenders".
I'm not sure of the "exact" totals (who is!), but above-ground Gold is thought to be c 170kT. 40 of that is "public" Gold and the remainder "private" Gold. (we're talking 24k REAL Gold here)

"Private" Gold comes in many forms (jewellery, Bars on deposit and the like ...personal hoards etc)

What we, as say "western" individuals seem content to do is "invest" in Gold ...and by that I mean turning our backs on individual self-reliance by introducing a "third party" into the equation of what Gold is.
ANY introduction of a third-party (in anything!) implies the introduction of an element of risk ...which (by extension) implies a requisite degree of Faith (miniscule to extreme - but faith nonetheless).

So, to best  understand what Gold really is (IMHO)...and to best harness those unique suite of properties, we can say that - to be completely and utterly serving it's best role in society, Gold needs also to be held in a manner that requires NO FAITH whatsoever!
When we revisit our above-ground estimates, "most" Gold currently held (at least in the west) doesn't qualify as anything but "investment" Gold,  with "third-party" associations attached ...AND requiring a degree of Faith to determine it's value via the markets, it's ownership via vaults, contracts etc.

MY Gold? ....has none of the "investment" characteristics.

The Gold I am the "current" custodian of  - MY Gold is a bit of a misnomer as it REALLY is in constant motion through time and should be regarded currently as OUR (My familys) Gold - requires no Faith whatsoever on my part.
Were MY Gold to be currently in-the-game, then I'd have to introduce an element of Faith into the equation and in turn rely on things like $PoG to "evaluate" it.

Nameless, faceless souls the world over share this Gold perspective however none too many (it would seem) are "of-the-western-mindset".

Talk and discussions relating to FreeGold will inevitably need to embrace this "lack-of-requisite Faith" aspect as a cornerstone of what Gold can and should do for both Individuals and Society going forward.
The Global thrust toward Socialism at the expense of the Free-market will I feel slow this process, but ultimately won't stop it.

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year one and all - 2013 promises to be interesting to say the least.